How to solve Essay Title 4 for the Nov 2024 TOK series
Title: To what extent do you agree that there is no significant difference between hypothesis and speculation? Discuss with reference to the human sciences and one other area of knowledge.
This essay title may just be the hardest one to write for the November 2024 series.
Key words
Hypothesis: A hypothesis is a proposed explanation based on initial observations by researchers
Speculation: A speculation may be formed without foundational observations. and may include personal biases and opinions
No significant difference: It’s essential you focus on possible differences for these in your AOKs
The Human & Natural Sciences
Both the human sciences and natural sciences function a bit similarly in relation to this, so you can use the same points for them both:
Slight differences
Speculations have a good chance of leading to a hypothesis. For example, in the field of psychology, researchers speculated how a placebo could lead to symptom improvement, which eventually resulted in the placebo effect hypothesis. We can say speculations drive hypotheses, leading to meaningful research in the human sciences.
Secondly, a hypothesis is a very specific and detailed statement predicting the relationship between variables. Speculations are overarching frameworks, such as Jane Elliot’s speculations on the effects of racism and prejudice; however, a hypothesis is the foundation for empirical investigation, such as Elliot’s hypothesis which specified the exhibition of certain behavioural changes.
They are the same
Both speculations and hypotheses have a high chance of being disproven upon further scientific investigation. For example, the hypothesis for a 2014 study claimed there is no significant increase in the aggression levels of children who play video games, and it was disproven when results showed there was an increase in aggression levels for some children after playing shooter games.
Secondly, since speculation can lead to the creation of a hypothesis, speculative ideas are closely aligned with the hypothesis and can often overlap. For example, the expressive writing research by Pennebaker in the 1970s was based on an initial speculation from a pivotal survey question, which prompted him to explore expressive writing as a potential therapeutic process.
History
Slight differences
While hypotheses are usually based on existing theories and empirical evidence, speculations can be more open-ended and philosophical. For example, a lot of the historical accounts of the ancient Greek historican Herodotus contain fantastical elements, such as human-sized ants in India, which may have been stories he had heard from travellers but lack empirical evidence and scientific credibility.
Another difference between hypotheses and speculations are that hypotheses are formulated to be testable, while speculations often lack specific criteria for testing. For example, the ancient Greek philosopher Plato described Atlantis as an advanced civilization that existed around 9000 years before his time, their lack of empirical evidence renders them unfalsifiable.
They are the same
In historical research, both hypotheses and speculation can share the same exploratory nature, as they both explore ideas beyong established facts. For example, the vanishing of the Roanoke colony in the late 16th century resulted in both speculations, ranging from Native-American attacks to supernatural events, and hypotheses, such as severe food shortages or hostile encounters.
Secondly, when evidence in historical research is scarce, historians are forced to fill gaps with either speculations or hypotheses. For example, there is an ongoing debate about the true identity of Shakespeare with a speculation that the name is a pseudonym for another writer or a set of writers, and some historians have hypotheses for specific candidates who may be the true identity of Shakespeare.
Related: The Complete Guide to the Nov 2014 TOK Essay Titles
For access to more RLEs, theory, guidance, and feedback, become a free member at Istanna.
Click here and check how to get feedback and solve your TOK related doubts with our Head Tutors at a time of your convenience.